How to Prevent Outliving your Retirement Savings

It’s what every retirement planner speculates; it’s what every pre-retire dreads; it’s every retiree’s nightmare – will I outlive my retirement savings? This question sits on the minds of each and every person associated with the retirement process, and with good reason.

Young Talent Needed

The job market is an ugly place right now but there’s a segment of the financial industry in desperate need of young talent.  To read more of this article written by Forbes click here.

Do You Have Enough Life Insurance?

Like most Americans, you probably have insurance on your home, your automobile, and even on your iPhone. This is great, as should something happen to any one of these high-priced commodities, you'll be taken care of. Yet alarmingly, when it comes to insuring one's life, Americans tend to be far more lax in their approach to ensuring that their loved ones are taken care of should the unthinkable happen.

Time for Your Annual September Life Insurance Evaluation

Monday: The night air is getting crisper, the kids are back in school, and football season has just kicked off — such are the perennial comforts that herald the arrival of autumn.

You may know what you own but do you know what you really stand to lose?

Meet Tyler and Misty. Married with three kids, they were sure they were making "all the right moves" for the future until they saw their complete financial picture. Learn how The Living Balance Sheet® helped them develop a sound, protection first strategy.

September is Life Insurance Awareness Month

Click on the video below to see how the security of life insurance can play an important part in your life. Buddy "Cake Boss" Valastro describes his personal experience and challenging path to success. We are confident that Buddy's message will resonate and get you to start thinking about the importance of life insurance.

September 2012 Monthly Economic Update

MONTHLY TIP

Many folks ignore big risks in their financial plan, often because they believe “nothing bad will happen to them” (or their families). This sort of denial doesn’t come with immunity – your faith or naiveté won’t protect you. If the financial effect of a premature death or injury is likely to be insurmountable, that’s where insurance should come in -- to transfer that big risk to a reliable company, for a relatively small but manageable cost, periodic insurance premiums.

Mastering Your Plastic

Purchasing methods are constantly evolving and becoming increasingly convenient over time. Consumers went from having to walk a herd of cattle to the market for trade, to lugging around a wallet of cash, to now holding all their wealth in a sliver of plastic. Credit cards have made the world of transactions simpler and easier to navigate for consumers around the world. Large purchases can be made without the cash up front. Many card companies offer various reward, cash back, or points promotions for use. Online shopping has become a breeze.

August 2012 Monthly Economic Update

Tip of the month. If you're likely to face estate taxes in the future, meaning you'll make a voluntary contribution to Uncle Sam when you die, you have two basic choices of how to pay the tax:

Retirement Planning: A Recipe For Success

Planning your investments to build a retirement fund can be a dizzying prospect. The various questions and options and details and accounts and amounts are enough to make anyone’s head spin. Wouldn’t it be nice if there was a generic recipe for success? A nice neat list of step by step instructions on how to make the best decisions on where, when and how much when it comes to investing for your retirement. Unfortunately, this list of steps is incredibly dependent upon each individual and their current situation and future plans, so a sure fire success route doesn’t exist.

July 2012 Monthly Economic Update

A recap of news from Wall Street, world markets & the economy.

Brought to you by Jim Hecker, Financial Advisor, Wealth Design Group, LLC.

Tip of the Month
If you’re likely to face estate taxes in the future, meaning you’ll make a voluntary contribution to Uncle Sam when you die, you have two basic choices of how to pay the tax:

Solutions to Your Biggest Money Problems

No two individuals have the same financial woes. Not only do financial situations vary in income, debt, spending and saving habits, but they also vary in the perspectives of those individuals and how they rank their specific money problems. After researching a few polls on the most popular money problems, we’ve created a list of what financial issues most individuals worry about the most and what you can do about it.

Why do Women Trail Men in Retirement Planning

With the passing of the many recent Mother’s Day celebrations it’s easy to acknowledge all that women do in the lives of people around them. It’s often said that mothers naturally put others first, which, admirable as it is, becomes a problem in terms of their own financial future. A new study by the ING Retirement Research Institute, “What about women and retirement”¹ shows that women, on average, are much less prepared for retirement than men. 

5 of the Top Places to Retire Outside of the U.S

While it may sound sensational or romantic, retiring in a foreign country also has more pragmatic benefits, leading to a rise in the population of Americans choosing to spend their golden years in other countries. Whether it's the draw of low costs of living, inexpensive and accessible health care, warmer climate or the charm of a distant locale, many of the following foreign locales already have large pools of retired expats, and as more and more baby boomers start retiring, coupled with a constricted economy and burgeoning medical expenses, this trend is projected to continue. 

Protecting Your Assets in Bankruptcy

Regardless of whether this year goes down in history as being the time in which the recession officially ended, our economy is still feeling its effects. According to the American Bankruptcy Institute, more than 1.6 million people are expected to have filed for personal bankruptcy by the end of the year. Almost 65% of filers chose “income reduction” as a reason for filing, while 42% listed “job loss” as their primary reason.

Millionaire's Judge their Wealth and Assets

Times are changing, and so is the way we view our wealth.  A survey by Fidelity Investments¹ reported that many millionaires don’t consider themselves rich with $3 or $4 million in investible assets, but rather a number around $7.5 million.  You can blame inflation or the advances in modern health technologies that lead to longer lives and an increase in retirement years, but most millionaires are upping the ante when it comes to their financial assets and future.

June 2012 Monthly Economic Update

MONTHLY QUOTE

“What we think or what we know or what we believe is, in the end, of little consequence. The only consequence is what we do.” – John Ruskin

MONTHLY TIP

If I asked you “Do you have an accumulation vehicle that will be going up in value 3 years from now, regardless of market conditions, would you be confident in answering “yes”? If not, we should talk.

MONTHLY RIDDLE

Which of these five words doesn’t belong in this list: that, what, cat, sat, chat.

Last month’s riddle: A man tells a friend that he married three women yesterday, and it was all legal. In fact, it was routine. How can he make such a statement?

Last month’s answer: He is a justice of the peace.

THE MONTH IN BRIEF

Things fell in May: stock and commodity prices, Treasury yields, mortgage rates, gas prices and the value of the euro. Investors worried about fragmentation of the eurozone, the possibility of default in Greece and bank woes in Spain. U.S. economic indicators ranged from tepid to middling, leading some analysts to wonder if another stimulus was needed. All told, it was a rough month for the market – the poorest month for the Dow since May 2010. Would 2012 simply be a replay of 2011 on Wall Street? Hopefully, the sense of déjà vu would pass.¹

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH

While May was a month marked by descents, the jobless rate managed to tick up to 8.2%. May’s unemployment report was quite bad: just 69,000 new jobs were created, while a Reuters poll of economists forecast payrolls swelling by 150,000.²

Actually, some stateside indicators did hint at continuing economic strength. Our manufacturing and service sectors were still growing, although the pace of growth had moderated: after a 1.4% gain in April, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI fell 1.3% in May to 53.5. (However, the new orders sub-index went all the way north to 60.1.) In April, ISM’s service sector PMI had been at 53.5; May’s reading improved to 53.7. May car sales were very strong: Toyota's U.S. sales rose 87%, Nissan’s 21%, and Chrysler’s 30%; sales of General Motors cars and trucks were up 11%. This was nice to hear after the April durable goods report, which showed a 0.2% advance with auto sales powering the gain. ^3,4,5,6,7

The federal government said that consumer prices were flat in April (producer prices retreated 0.2%, the first such decline since December). As it happened, 12-month consumer inflation was but 2.3% in May (the lowest annualized inflation since February 2011). Consumer confidence was either notably up or notably down, depending on which poll you believed; the Conference Board’s May survey recorded a 3.8% drop (down to 64.9 from 68.7 for April) while the University of Michigan’s survey hit 79.3 – a 3.8% rise to the highest level since October 2007. ^2,7,8,9,10

The event of the month on Wall Street was Facebook’s IPO, which ended up being fumbled by NASDAQ. Trading glitches aside, this IPO did not turn out to be the next Google: shares were initially offered at $38 on May 18 and closed just slightly higher at the end of the trading day. On June 4, the share price settled at $26.90.¹¹

GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH

The odds of a Greek default appeared to increase. A growing number of economists and money managers felt that it would return to the drachma following its June 17 elections, a direct result of being unable to form a coalition government. After the new Greek elections were announced on May 14, $894 million worth of assets left Greek banks in a day. Spain’s government announced that €100 billion had left that country in the first quarter. Major Spanish lenders appeared in jeopardy; analysts estimated it would take €60-80 billion from the IMF to backstop them. Adding to worries that Europe might return to economic balkanization, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi and EU economy commissioner Olli Rehn both warned that the eurozone was in serious trouble. Euro area unemployment hit 11.0% in April, rising 0.7% in a month. The Markit eurozone PMI fell to 45.1 in May (lowest reading in almost two years) and the U.K.’s benchmark manufacturing PMI dropped to 45.9 from 50.2 in April.^{2,12,13,14,15}

In fact, manufacturing PMIs seemed to retreat worldwide in May. For example: China’s “official” PMI slipped unexpectedly to 50.4 from April’s 53.3 mark; China’s HSBC PMI went from 49.3 to 48.7; Australia’s went from 43.9 to 42.4; Germany’s from 46.2 to 45.2; Brazil’s remained flat at 49.3 and South Korea’s PMI was a relatively healthy 51.0. JPMorgan’s global manufacturing PMI was at 50.6 in May, down from 51.4 in April to its lowest point since December.^6,15

WORLD MARKETS

The Shanghai Composite lost only 1.00% in May; other major benchmarks fared worse. In the rest of the Asia Pacific region, the Sensex lost 5.81%, the Hang Seng 12.07%, the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries 7.46% and the Nikkei 225 9.32%. In Europe, the DAX dropped 8.70%, the CAC 40 6.09% and the FTSE 100 7.51%. (All of the above May performances have been measured in U.S. dollar terms by Morningstar.) The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 11.67%; the MSCI World Index lost 8.99% for May.^16,17

COMMODITIES MARKETS

The dollar certainly had a great May – the U.S. Dollar Index, in fact, gained 5.43%. Natural gas futures also rose 6.00% for the month. Aside from those advances, there were marked descents for major commodities. Oil futures retreated 17.49% on the month, falling to settle at $86.53 on the NYMEX. Heating oil slipped 15.11%; RBOB gasoline dropped 12.86%. The upside: retail gas prices fell 5.14% last month. As for metals, gold lost 6.01% in May and that put it at -0.17% for the year. The COMEX price was $1,564.20 on May 31. Copper lost 12.12% in May while silver slipped 10.51%. Marquee crops suffered May losses, too: coffee futures declined 9.25%, corn 12.46%, cotton 19.63% and wheat only 1.64%.^1,2

REAL ESTATE

Some good news came in from the Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors: new and existing home sales had improved in April. New home purchases rose by 3.3% while residential resales were up 3.4% for the month to near-January levels (January 2012 saw the best sales pace in almost two years). NAR said that pending home sales had decreased 5.5% in April, but they were up 14.1% from a year ago. The March edition of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index hinted that the pace of decline in housing prices could be moderating – the index was down just 1.9% for the last 12 months.^18,19,20

With Treasury yields moving further into negative territory during May, mortgage rates went still lower. Freddie Mac noted the following decreases in average home loan interest rates between its April 26 and May 31 surveys: 30-year FRMs, 3.88% to 3.75%; 15-year FRMs, 3.12% to 2.97%; 5/1-year ARMs, 2.85% to 2.84%. Average rates on 1-year ARMs actually ticked up from 2.74% to 2.75%.²¹

LOOKING BACK…LOOKING FORWARD

After the worst month for stocks in two years, the major U.S. indices were all still in the black YTD. At the end of the month, the S&P 500 was at 1,310.33, the NASDAQ at 2,827.34 and the Dow at 12,393.45. Look at the month-ending real yield on the 10-year Treasury.^1,22

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-MO CHG	1-YR CHG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+1.44	-6.21	-1.40	+2.49
NASDAQ	+8.53	-7.19	-0.28	+7.50
S&P 500	+4.19	-6.27	-2.59	+2.28
REAL YIELD	5/31 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	-0.50%	0.80%	2.54%	3.48%

Sources: money.msn.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 5/31/12^1,23,24,25

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

June 1 marked the Dow’s worst day of 2012 as anxieties over the eurozone intensified. The middle of June could bring some pronounced volatility before and after Greece’s special elections. Could U.S. economic indicators be encouraging enough to divert Wall Street’s attention from Greece and Spain this month or even provide a shot of confidence? That seems a best-case scenario. While few analysts think the U.S. could slip back into a recession, there was basically a market correction as of June 1 (the S&P 500 was down 9.94% at the close of trading on that day from its April 2 peak), and even bulls are bracing for severe fallout from Europe. At the top of June, the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P were all below their simple 200-day moving averages yet oversold according to their relative strength indexes. Interpret that as you wish; staunch bulls might see grounds for a rally, should the Street somehow take its mind off Europe.⁵

UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES

Here’s what ahead in terms of stateside news for the rest of June: a new Beige Book from the Federal Reserve (6/6), April wholesale inventories (6/8), May retail sales figures, April business inventories and May’s PPI (6/13), May’s CPI (6/14), the initial June consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan and the report on May industrial output (6/15), May housing starts and building permits (6/19), a Fed policy announcement (6/20), May existing home sales and the May Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators index (6/21), May’s new home sales (6/25), the Conference Board’s June reading of consumer confidence and the April Case-Shiller home price index (6/26), April durable goods orders and May pending home sales (6/27), the federal government’s final estimate of Q1 GDP (6/28), May personal spending (6/29) and the University of Michigan final June consumer sentiment survey (6/30).

Representative and Financial Advisor of Park Avenue Securities LLC PAS.

Securities products/services and advisory services offered through PAS a registered Broker-dealer and investment advisor.

Field Representative, The Guardian Life Insurance Company of America (Guardian) New York, NY.

PAS is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Guardian.

Wealth Design Group is not an affiliate or subsidiary of PAS or Guardian.

PAS is a member FINRA, SIPC.§

This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. The US Dollar Index measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six currencies. The SSE Composite Index is an index of all stocks (A shares and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange. BSE Sensex or Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitivity Index is a value-weighted index composed of 30 stocks that started January 1, 1986. The Hang Seng Index is a freefloat-adjusted market capitalization-weighted stock market index that is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong. The S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Index represents the 500 largest companies in the Australian equities market. Nikkei 225 (Ticker: ^N225) is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE). The Nikkei average is the most watched index of Asian stocks. The DAX 30 is a Blue Chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The CAC-40 Index is a narrow-based, modified capitalization-weighted index of 40 companies listed on the Paris Bourse. The FTSE 100 Index is a share index of the 100 most highly capitalized companies listed on the London Stock Exchange. The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index that includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index consisting of indices in more than 25 emerging economies. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 - http://money.msn.com/market-news/post.aspx?post=a78bb8b0-421f-43b2-afb3-f036986bc71a [5/31/12]

2 - www.cnbc.com/id/47645265 [6/1/12]

3 - www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm [6/1/12]

4 - www.ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm [6/5/12]

5 - money.msn.com/market-news/post.aspx?post=109dd732-6daa-4f8a-b878-a8ee80dd9aba [6/1/12]

6 - articles.marketwatch.com/2012-05-24/economy/31831869_1_orders-for-long-lasting-goods-aircraft-and-parts-orders-durable-goods-orders [5/25/12]

7 - online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304192704577405853805485804.html [5/15/12]

8 - www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm [5/11/12]

9 - www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm [5/29/12]

10 - thomsonreuters.com/content/financial/pdf/i_and_a/438965/gains_in_confidence_depends_on_job_growth.pdf [5/25/12]

11 - www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-06/D9V6I7401.htm [6/4/12]

12 - www.nytimes.com/2012/06/04/business/global/euro-zone-nears-moment-of-truth-on-staying-together.html [6/3/12]

13 - www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2012/05/16/152816508/greece-sets-new-election-for-june-17-fear-of-bank-runs-reported [5/16/12]

14 - epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/3-01062012-AP/EN/3-01062012-AP-EN.PDF [6/4/12]

15 - seekingalpha.com/article/635791-a-bad-week-for-risk [6/4/12]

16 - news.morningstar.com/index/indexReturn.html [5/31/12]

17 - mscibarra.com/products/indices/international_equity_indices/gimi/stdindex/performance.html [5/31/12]

18 - www.freep.com/article/20120523/BUSINESS07/120523032/U-S-new-home-sales-April-housing-market [5/23/12]

19 - www.mortgageloan.com/pending-home-sales-hit-bump-9083 [5/30/12]

20 - blogs.wsj.com/developments/2012/05/29/behind-the-numbers-does-case-shiller-show-a-market-bottoming-out/ [5/29/12]

21 - www.freddiemac.com/pmms/ [6/4/12]

22 - montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=an-introduction-to-the-stock-market&category=29 [6/4/12]

23 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F31%2F11&x=0&y=0 [5/31/12]

23 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F31%2F11&x=0&y=0 [5/31/12]

23 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F31%2F11&x=0&y=0 [5/31/12]

23 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F31%2F02&x=0&y=0 [5/31/12]

23 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F31%2F02&x=0&y=0 [5/31/12]

23 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F31%2F02&x=0&y=0 [5/31/12]

24 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [6/4/12]

25 - treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2002/ofm10902.pdf [1/9/02]

May 2012 Monthly Economic Update

MONTHLY QUOTE

“You make a living by what you get. You make a life by what you give.” – Winston Churchill

April 2012 Monthly Economic Update

MONTHLY QUOTE

“Humor is just another defense against the universe.” – Mel Brooks

MONTHLY RIDDLE

What has three feet yet cannot run or walk?

Last month’s riddle: This word signifies a gap between hills or mountain ranges. Yet remove just one letter, and it signifies a gap between buildings. What is this six-letter word?

Last month’s answer: Valley.

MONTHLY TIPIf the estate-tax exemption drops from $5.12 million to $1 million per person (which it will do by law on January 1, 2013, without further “congressional action”), many families that have been successful in accumulating wealth will have their flexibility in estate planning and tax minimization shrink dramatically. Don’t let procrastination close this “wide-open door” on you and potentially cost your family millions of dollars of needless taxes for generations to come. I can show you how to protect your assets from optional estate taxation without giving up control or access if needed later.

To “add insult to injury” from a math standpoint, unlike income-tax deductions that come “off the top”, a $1 million estate-tax exemption results in a $345,800 tax savings "off the bottom" of the estate’s value. It does NOT yield $550,000 of tax savings computed "off the top" at the peak tax rate of 55%, as most might expect. For most taxable estates, the $1 million exemption saves estate tax at an “effective rate” of less than 35%, whereas the “un-exempt” estate pays taxes at a rate much closer to the widely-publicized 55% top rate.

Even though the issues of estate planning and taxation may seem far away and remote in your day-to-day life, these are a couple of the many reasons to take action now to minimize these taxes your estate could pay later, as well as keep control of your hard-earned assets for generations to come – Jim

THE MONTH IN BRIEF

March brought gains and milestones. The NASDAQ ended the month above 3,000, which it hadn’t done in nearly 12 years. The Dow pulled off its sixth straight monthly advance, and the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 rose as well. Gas prices continued their march upward, but consumer spending did not fall. The real estate sector flashed some negative signals. Investors and economists alike mulled the effect that potentially decelerating economies in Europe and Asia might have on Wall Street. The U.S. economy, on the other hand, seemed to show further improvement.¹

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH

Gas prices were putting the clamps on the consumer, right? Wrong. It seemed consumer spending was rising, perhaps partly in response to increased fuel costs. In fact, the Commerce Department said personal spending rose 0.8% in February (the biggest gain in seven months) even as incomes rose just 0.2%. As for that other really important statistic affecting consumers, the nation’s jobless rate had remained at 8.3% for February, although job growth was impressive once again (227,000 positions added to non-farm payrolls).^2,3

Consumer sentiment was the proverbial mixed bag. The Conference Board’s survey slipped from February’s revised mark of 71.6 to 70.2. The University of Michigan’s final March survey came in at 76.2, up from the 74.3 reading of late February.⁴

Consumer prices moved in a pronounced direction – and that direction was up. The federal government’s Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in February, the biggest monthly gain since April. Producer prices matched that increase. Annualized CPI was running at 2.9%, annualized core CPI at 2.2%. What role did gasoline costs play in all this? A major one. A 6% February rise in retail gas prices represented a significant portion of the advance in the overall CPI. Pump prices have climbed close to 20% since December, and a gallon of unleaded cost $3.93 at the end of the month, up 2o cents from the end of February. Even with this price pressure on consumers, the Census Bureau said retail sales were 1.1% better in February. It also revised January’s gain up to 0.6%. Durable goods orders also rose 2.2% in February.^4,5,6,7

The U.S. manufacturing and service sectors were holding up well. The Institute for Supply Management’s March manufacturing PMI rose a full percentage point to 53.4, and its non-manufacturing index read 57.3 in February, an 0.5% gain.^8,9

The Federal Reserve conducted its annual stress test of 19 big banks in March, and 15 lenders held up under the “doomsday” scenario (Dow losing half of its value, home prices at 1996 levels, a 13% jobless rate). American Express, Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, BB&T, CapitalOne, Fifth Third, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Keycorp, Morgan Stanley, PNC, Regions, State Street, U.S. Bancorp and Wells Fargo each got a thumbs-up. The Fed felt that Citigroup, SunTrust, Ally and MetLife would lose enough assets under the scenario to pose systemic risk.¹⁰

GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH

To what degree would the Eurozone economy slow down? Would Asian economies turn around their manufacturing bases? Looking to Europe, the signs were bleak. The Eurozone jobless rate ticked up to a post-euro high of 10.8% in March. In Spain, the unemployment rate was 23.6%; in France, it was 10.0%; in Italy, it was 9.3%; in Germany, it was just 5.7%. The key Markit purchasing managers index was below 50 for the eighth consecutive month in March, with analysts growing increasingly certain that the EU had slid into a recession.¹¹

As for the key economies of the Asia-Pacific region, factory output was looking better. For March, official PMIs were in reasonably good shape in China (53.1, best since last April), India (54.7), and South Korea (52.0, a one-year high). India’s inflation rate accelerated in March for the first time since October.¹²

WORLD MARKETS

Many major stock indices pulled back last month. That was not the case for the Nikkei 225, off to a roaring start in 2012 (+19.26% for Q1). The Japanese benchmark rose 3.71% last month. Germany’s DAX was up 1.30% in March and Australia’s All Ordinaries rose 0.73%. Several major indices retreated: the CAC 40 lost 0.83%, the FTSE 100 1.76%, the TSX Composite 2.41%, the Sensex 3.91%, the Hang Seng 5.57% and the Shanghai Composite 6.82%. Despite these losses, all of the above indices posted gains for the quarter. The MSCI World Index rose 1.02% in March and 10.94% for Q1 in USD terms. By the same measuring stick, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 3.52% in March but rose 13.65% for the quarter.^13,14

COMMODITIES MARKETS

The hottest marquee commodity of March was (guess what) retail gasoline at +5.20%. Cotton went +3.85% last month. Most other key commodities lost their footing – most notably, natural gas. Those futures slid 18.73% in March, a descent helped by unseasonably warm weather. Oil futures lost 3.78% last month, settling at $103.02 per barrel on the NYMEX; for the quarter, prices rose 4.24%. Gold slipped 2.30% on the COMEX on the month and rose 6.71% on the quarter to wrap March at $1,671.90 on the COMEX. Copper (-1.40%) and silver (-6.23%) retreated after two strong monthly advances. RBOB gasoline futures rose 1.56% in March and the U.S. Dollar Index pulled off its first monthly gain for 2012 (+0.44%). Elsewhere, coffee futures sank 8.98%, corn lost 2.13% and wheat lost 1.09% for the month.⁶

REAL ESTATE

March didn’t bring much improvement. Interest rates on conventional mortgages did go back under 4% after topping that mark at mid-month. Looking at Freddie Mac’s March 1 and March 29 Primary Mortgage Market Surveys, we see that mortgage interest rates did increase last month: 30-year FRMs went from 3.90% to 3.99%; 15-year FRMs went from 3.17% to 3.23%; 5/1-year ARMs rose from 2.83% to 2.90%; 1-year ARMs went from 2.72% to 2.78%.¹⁵

Existing home sales fell 0.9% for the month, while new home sales pulled back 1.6%. Year-over-year, the pace of residential resales had increased 8.8% while new home buying rose 11.4%. The Census Bureau announced that the median new home sale price had risen 6.2% in a year to $233,700. The National Association of Realtors noted the first year-over-year increase in existing home prices since November 2010. However, the January edition of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed that existing home prices had essentially reset to early 2003 levels. The index posted its fifth straight monthly retreat and was down 3.8% from 12 months before. The NAR also reported a 0.5% decline in pending home sales for February.^16,17,18

LOOKING BACK…LOOKING FORWARD

Fear seemed to take a holiday: the CBOE VIX was at 15.50 on March 30 after diving 15.90% for the month. The Dow ended March at 13,212.04, the S&P at 1,408.47, the NASDAQ at 3,091.57 and the Russell 2000 at 830.30.¹

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-MO CHG	1-YR CHG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+8.14	+2.01	+6.97	+2.70
NASDAQ	+18.67	+4.20	+11.34	+6.75
S&P 500	+12.00	+3.13	+6.04	+2.28
REAL YIELD	3/30 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	-0.09%	1.00%	2.21%	3.48%

Sources: money.msn.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 3/30/12^{1,19,20,21,22}

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

It would be mind-blowing if the market put together consecutive quarters like this, and even the most bullish of analysts don’t expect a repeat. Then again, Wall Street has surprised us many times. Some analysts think the current bull market may be due to run out of steam given the apparent economic sluggishness in Europe and the tendency of investors to “sell in May, go away”. Others think that since the S&P 500 fell 19.4% in October 2011 from an April 2011 peak (actually more than 20%, if you factor in intraday numbers rather than just the market close), we are actually more or less in a new bull market that began last fall. So would that be a baby bull within a secular bear, or something more lasting? Whether you think the glass is half full or half empty on Wall Street, the fact remains that stocks surpassed expectations in the first quarter of the year – and April may bring further gains.²³

UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES

Here is the slate of releases for the rest of April: the March ISM service sector index (4/4), the March unemployment report (4/6), February wholesale inventories (4/10), a new Federal Reserve Beige Book (4/11), the March PPI (4/12), the March CPI and the initial University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for April (4/13), March retail sales and February business inventories (4/16), March industrial output, housing starts and building permits (4/17), the March Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators index and March existing home sales (4/19), March new home sales, the February Case-Shiller home price index and the Conference Board’s April consumer confidence poll (4/24), March durable goods orders and an FOMC policy announcement (4/25), March pending home sales (4/26), the federal government’s first estimate of Q1 GDP and the final April University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey (4/27), and finally the March consumer spending numbers (4/30).

*Registered Representative and Financial Advisor of Park Avenue Securities LLC PAS. Securities products/services and advisory services offered through PAS a registered Broker-dealer and investment advisor. Field Representative, The Guardian Life Insurance Company of America (Guardian) New York, NY. PAS is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Guardian. Wealth Design Group is not an affiliate or subsidiary of PAS or Guardian. PAS is a member FINRA, SIPC.

This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Nikkei 225 (Ticker: ^N225) is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE). The Nikkei average is the most watched index of Asian stocks. The DAX 30 is a Blue Chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The Hang Seng Index is a freefloat-adjusted market capitalization-weighted stock market index that is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong. The SSE Composite Index is an index of all stocks (A shares and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The CAC-40 Index is a narrow-based, modified capitalization-weighted index of 40 companies listed on the Paris Bourse. The FTSE 100 Index is a share index of the 100 most highly capitalized companies listed on the London Stock Exchange. BSE Sensex or Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitivity Index is a value-weighted index composed of 30 stocks that started January 1, 1986. The S&P/TSX Composite Index is an index of the stock (equity) prices of the largest companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) as measured by market capitalization. The S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Index represents the 500 largest companies in the Australian equities market. The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index that includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index consisting of indices in more than 25 emerging economies. The US Dollar Index measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six currencies. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

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